India should prepare for geopolitical disruptions every one to two years and use the current global uncertainty to push structural reforms, Axis Bank chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said at Kotak Private Banking’s TACT forum in Mumbai. Speaking during a discussion moderated by Nilesh Shah, Mishra said the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States may have reduced immediate tensions, but global instability linked to the wider US-China rivalry is likely to continue.
Mishra warned that conflicts increasingly hurt economies through disruptions in supply chains, energy flows, logistics, chemicals and aviation rather than direct battlefield impacts. He said even a four percent disruption in global energy flows could significantly hit global GDP and manufacturing activity.
Despite rising global uncertainty, Mishra said India is better prepared than during earlier crises due to stronger capital markets, healthier external balances and improved policy credibility. He urged policymakers to accelerate reforms in electrification, housing and urban infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to oil shocks and create stable domestic demand.
He also called for reforms in tourism and urban planning, saying restrictive regulations have made tourism in India expensive and less competitive.
In Kolkata, investors and businesses in the city are closely tracking global energy prices and supply chain disruptions, especially sectors dependent on imports and logistics. Market observers believe infrastructure and electrification reforms could create new investment opportunities for eastern India, including the Kolkata region, if policy measures are implemented swiftly.