The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to return to power in Assam for a third straight term if the projections released by Axis My India after the Assembly elections hold true. The exit poll has predicted a clear advantage for the ruling alliance, suggesting that the NDA may once again secure a strong mandate from voters across the state. According to the survey, the NDA is expected to win between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly. The numbers place the alliance well above the majority mark and indicate that the ruling coalition may retain power comfortably if the final results follow the same trend. The Congress-led opposition alliance, which campaigned aggressively against the ruling government during the election, is projected to win between 24 and 36 seats. While the opposition alliance appears to have improved its position in some regions compared to the previous election, the exit poll indicates that it still remains far behind the NDA in the overall contest.
The survey also points towards a significant difference in vote share between the two major alliances. Axis My India has estimated that the NDA could secure around 48 per cent of the total vote share in the state. The Congress-led alliance is projected to receive around 38 per cent votes, while other political parties and independent candidates together may account for the remaining 14 per cent. The exit poll findings suggest that the ruling alliance has managed to maintain support in both rural and urban areas of Assam. In rural constituencies, the NDA is projected to secure around 47 per cent vote share, while in urban areas its support is estimated to be even higher at 52 per cent. The figures indicate that the alliance has continued to attract voters from different sections of society and across different regions of the state. The Congress-led alliance is projected to receive around 39 per cent vote share in rural areas and about 34 per cent in urban constituencies. The data suggests that the opposition has made some gains in rural Assam, where dissatisfaction over local issues, unemployment, rising prices and other concerns were raised during the campaign period. However, the increase in support may not be enough to challenge the NDA’s broader electoral strength across the state. One of the important observations highlighted in the survey is the rise in support for the Congress-led alliance in rural Assam.
The poll indicates that the opposition alliance may have recorded a positive swing of nearly seven percentage points in these areas compared to the last Assembly election. Political observers believe that the opposition’s attempts to consolidate anti-incumbency votes and strengthen its outreach in villages may have helped improve its performance in certain constituencies. Despite this, the NDA appears to have retained a strong base among different caste and community groups. According to the survey data, the ruling alliance is projected to receive major support from General category voters, Scheduled Castes, Other Backward Classes and a significant section of Scheduled Tribe voters. The exit poll estimates that the NDA could receive around 73 per cent support among General category voters. Among Scheduled Castes, the alliance is projected to secure around 71 per cent support, while among Other Backward Classes the figure is estimated at 64 per cent. Among Scheduled Tribe voters, the NDA is expected to hold an advantage with nearly 56 per cent support. On the other hand, the Congress-led alliance is projected to receive strong backing from Muslim voters. The survey estimates that nearly 78 per cent of Muslim voters may have supported the opposition alliance during the election. Analysts believe this could reflect a major consolidation of minority votes in favour of the Congress-led bloc.