Former army officer Gaurav Arya has claimed that China is emerging as the biggest beneficiary of the ongoing West Asia conflict, warning that India must sharply increase defence spending and strengthen manufacturing capacity to counter rising geopolitical threats.
Speaking at Kotak Private Banking’s “Take and Counter Take” (TACT) forum, Arya said global attention remains focused on Israel, Iran and the United States, while Beijing is quietly gaining strategic advantage. He argued that China has spent decades building economic and military strength, allowing it to exploit global instability and expand influence over supply chains and energy routes.
The discussion, moderated by Nilesh Shah and featuring economist Neelkanth Mishra, examined the impact of geopolitical tensions on India’s economy and security environment. Arya warned that the conflict could trigger more terror attacks globally, including “lone wolf attacks” and sleeper-cell activities in India and Western countries.
Calling India’s current defence budget inadequate, Arya urged the government to raise defence expenditure to 3.5 per cent of GDP. He stressed that economic strength, defence manufacturing and industrial growth were essential for national security and strategic autonomy.
In Kolkata, prolonged geopolitical instability could create volatility in sectors dependent on global supply chains, fuel imports and logistics. However, industrial and defence-linked businesses in the Kolkata market may benefit if India accelerates domestic manufacturing and defence production in response to rising regional security concerns.