The results of the Assam Assembly elections, to be announced on Monday (May 4), will decide whether the BJP-led NDA can retain its stronghold or if the Congress-led six-party alliance can pull off a surprise upset. The BJP contested the April 9 polls eyeing a third consecutive term in power, while the Congress, weakened by several defections to the BJP, aimed for a return after a decade out of office. Exit polls predicted a comfortable NDA victory with over 90 of the 126 seats, boosting BJP’s hopes for a hat-trick. The Congress dismissed these projections as “highly exaggerated,” alleging that the BJP used them to influence officials and Opposition candidates ahead of counting day.
Assam recorded a record 86% voter turnout — the highest ever — which the Opposition interpreted as a sign of public desire for change. Congress state president Gaurav Gogoi said people voted for a “New Bor-Asom” (Greater Assam) and new leadership. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma countered that voters supported the NDA to protect Assam’s land, culture, and identity from “illegal infiltration and demographic aggression.”
The BJP campaigned on identity and development, warning that its defeat could lead to renewed “Miya aggression,” referring to Bengali-speaking Muslims alleged to be illegal migrants. The campaign came after a series of eviction drives against supposed illegal settlers. The NDA promised to rid Assam of infiltrators, sustain development, maintain peace, and tackle the state’s perennial flood problem. The Congress, in contrast, focused on allegations of corruption against the Chief Minister and pledged justice for popular singer-musician Zubeen Garg within 100 days of coming to power. Garg had died in Singapore last year, and his death continues to stir public sentiment.
The outcome in Assam could influence upcoming elections in Manipur (next year) and in Nagaland, Tripura, and Meghalaya (in 2028). The BJP’s 2016 win in Assam marked its entry into the Northeast, where the Congress has since lost much ground.
This election was also the first that Himanta Biswa Sarma led for the BJP, following two terms under former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. The campaign saw heated controversies, including allegations by Congress leader Pawan Khera about Sarma’s wife’s foreign assets — charges she denied before filing a police complaint, after which the Supreme Court granted Khera anticipatory bail.
A total of 722 candidates, including 59 women, contested the polls. Key contenders included Sarma, Gogoi, ministers Pijush Hazarika and Jayanta Malla Baruah (BJP), Opposition leader Debabrata Saikia (Congress), AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, Raijor Dal’s Akhil Gogoi, AGP’s Atul Bora, AJP’s Lurinjyoti Gogoi, and UPPL’s Pramod Boro. AIUDF and UPPL contested independently.
The Congress fielded the most candidates (99), followed by the BJP (90), AIUDF (30), AGP (26), and UPPL (19). There were 2,50,54,463 eligible voters — 1,25,31,552 males, 1,25,22,593 females, and 318 transgender individuals. Voting took place at 31,486 polling stations, with 3,716 managed by women and 23 by persons with disabilities. Dalgaon had the largest electorate (3,17,110), while Amri had the smallest (1,00,494).