The World Trade Organization (WTO) has issued a stark warning that global goods trade growth will decelerate significantly in 2026, falling to just 0.5%, largely due to escalating tariffs imposed by the U.S. under the Trump administration.
The jump in U.S. tariff rates—now nearing 17%, the highest since the 1930s—has created broad policy uncertainty. Many countries have refrained from retaliatory measures thus far, helping cushion the immediate blow.
Still, the WTO projects that 2025 trade growth in goods will fare better at 2.4%, boosted by pre-tariff stockpiling in the U.S., robust AI-sector demand, and increased trade among emerging markets.
While AI-related goods (like semiconductors) saw a 20% year-on-year increase, services exports are expected to decelerate to 4.4%. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala urged nations to resolve disputes through legal dispute-settlement rather than escalating protectionism.