The western Himalaya is warming faster than the central and eastern stretches of the mountain range and is projected to suffer the greatest snow loss by the end of the century, according to a new study published in the Journal of Earth System Science.
The study, titled “Vulnerability of the Himalayan region under the climate change”, analysed 120 years of temperature observations from 1901 to 2020 and projections from eight global climate models under five emission scenarios. Researchers from Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and Ashoka University found that the western Himalaya, covering Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, has consistently emerged as the most climate-sensitive region.
By 2081–2100, winter temperatures in the western Himalaya could rise by 7.18°C under a high-emission scenario, compared with 5.82°C in the eastern Himalaya. Spring snow loss in the west could reach 95.9 kg per square metre under high emissions, nearly three times the loss projected under a low-emission pathway.
The researchers also found that night-time temperatures are rising faster than daytime temperatures in the western and central Himalaya, potentially accelerating snow and ice melt.
In Guwahati, changes in Himalayan snow and glacier melt could have longer-term implications for the Brahmaputra basin, influencing water availability, agriculture, fisheries, hydropower planning and other water-dependent economic activities across Assam. The researchers called for region-specific climate policies, stronger monitoring, early-warning systems, sustainable water management and community-level resilience measures.