New US sanctions on two of Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, came into effect on November 21, 2025. The sanctions aim to significantly disrupt Russia’s oil trade, causing approximately 48 million barrels of Russian crude to become temporarily stranded at sea as vessels urgently seek new buyers.
The sanctions directly impact US-India trade discussions, as the Trump administration has imposed a 25% penal tariff on Indian exports in response to India’s continued crude oil imports from Russia. While major Indian refiners are expected to cease direct procurement from the sanctioned entities, Russian oil is unlikely to disappear entirely from the world market.
Analysts predict new intermediaries and alternative shipping and payment mechanisms will emerge to maintain Russian supply, which remains attractive due to its discounted price. The situation creates a volatile and uncertain supply chain, forcing global energy companies to adapt quickly to evolving trade compliance rules.