A cyclone that formed over the South Andaman Sea on Wednesday is set to turn into a depression this weekend.
Met officials said it was too early to predict whether the gadget would become a cyclone.
But May is a good time for a tropical cyclone and the chance cannot be ruled out now. If the device turns into a cyclone, it will be 0.33 in May for three consecutive years after Amphan in 2020 and Yas in 2021.
“Wednesday’s cyclone is likely to develop into a low pressure area. In the next 48 hours, it is likely to intensify into a depression as well,” said Ganesh Kumar Das, Director, India Meteorological Department, Kolkata.
“What happens in the past remains to be seen. It is still too early to predict whether the device will become a cyclone or which coast it will hit,” Das said.
The gadget will move in a north-northwest direction towards the Bay of Bengal, he said.
Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Bengal are all viable destinations, as are Bangladesh and Myanmar.
May is a fertile time for cyclones in the Bay of Bengal because of high sea surface temperatures, an important requirement for cyclone formation.
But there are various factors that can make or break a cyclone, Das said.
“A strong vertical wind shear, which removes heat and moisture from the core, can be fatal for a cyclone. Dry westerly winds at the top of the ecosystem can also be damaging as the gadget approaches land,” he said.
In December, Cyclone Jawad lost steam as it approached land due to several factors. One of them was the difference in sea surface temperature.
Sea surface temperatures were higher in the southeast and west-central Bay of Bengal. As the gadget moves closer to the coast, the sea surface temperature continues to cool.
But that was in winter. In May, sea surface temperatures are likely to be beneficial for the new system, climate scientists said.
Met officers hope to have a clearer understanding of the machine in the next few days.
“Long journeys spanning kilometers across the ocean are full of uncertainty. Once the device becomes depressed, we will have a much better understanding,” said Das.
For now, the Met has issued only an “Increased Rainfall Warning” for Andaman and Nicobar Islands from May 4 to 8.
In Kolkata, thunderstorm activity is likely to subside after one more storm, a weather official said.
“New thunderstorms occurred in Jharkhand on Wednesday. Ranchi was cloudy in the afternoon. They are shifting towards Kolkata and some more thundershowers are predicted,” Honorable said on Wednesday evening.
He said that the temperature will rise again after the lightning subsides.
“This weekend, the maximum temperature is likely to be around 36 degrees,” Honorable said.