The recent surge in global commodity prices appears to have run its course, with analysts suggesting that most commodities may now trade sideways or remain under pressure in the coming months.
Prices across a broad spectrum — from base metals such as copper, zinc and lead to precious metals like gold and silver — have declined sharply, slipping up to 21 per cent from their 52-week highs reached in late January 2026. Natural gas has been the worst hit, plunging nearly 62 per cent from $7.83 per MMBtu in late January to around $2.99. Brent crude has also fallen about 13 per cent from its peak of $78.31 per barrel to below $68.
Market experts believe the commodity rally of the current cycle is largely over. The recent correction in metals coincided with a sharp fall in cryptocurrencies and technology stocks, prompting investors to book profits after significant gains. Gold, which historically delivered average annual returns of around 6 per cent, had surged nearly 100 per cent within a year, encouraging profit-taking.
Analysts warn that both precious and industrial metals could remain highly volatile, with the possibility of another 10 per cent downside over the next six months. Concerns over a potential slowdown in global economic growth and weakness in major asset classes continue to weigh on sentiment.
In the energy segment, oil and gas prices may remain range-bound unless geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the United States and Iran, trigger short-term spikes. Some global forecasts expect Brent crude to average between $58 and $60 for the rest of 2026, with occasional dips below $55 amid oversupply concerns.
Agricultural commodities have also witnessed corrections. Prices of coffee, corn, cotton, soybean futures, sugar and wheat have fallen up to 29 per cent from their 2025 highs. Analysts attribute the decline largely to reduced Chinese buying amid trade uncertainties. However, lower farm profitability in recent years may curb production, potentially helping stabilise prices ahead.
Overall, experts suggest caution, advising investors to consider booking profits as the commodity upcycle appears to be fading.
